Create a Positive Expectation When You Gamble

Understanding Positive Expectations

Positive expectation is less of a mindset and more like a mathematical calculation of how much you can potentially win from a game. That way, you can have a positive expectation of the winnings.

Let's use a simple coin toss as an example. You'll win $1 when a coin lands on heads and lose $1 when it lands on tails. This is easy to calculate because the chance of remaining 50:50 doesn't matter how many times you toss the coin. In this case, your expectation will be zero, as you can theoretically win $50 and lose $50 within 100 tosses.

However, if you change the amount of loss, the calculation will change, too. If heads give you a $1 win and tails are a 50c loss, your total loss will lower. The chance remained 50:50, but now, there's a chance you win $50 while only losing $25. This is a positive expectation as the total result leads to a win of 25c for every toss!

Creating Positive Expectations When Playing Slots

All real money games have an RTP (Return to Player) percentage. This is the easy way to calculate your winning potential to create a positive expectation.

For slots, you can usually find each game's RTP on the casino's page or the rules page inside the game. If the slot offers an RTP of 96%, the remaining 4% is the house edge. Playing a 96% RTP slot with a $1 bet means the average payout for every spin is 96c.

Still, that's a theoretical calculation, as the winning potential is shared with all players playing the same game. You won't be able to consistently win the same amount on every spin, as the slot's volatility will also affect how the game pays. You likely don't see any win for a while, but then hit a big win.

As many variables go into the calculation, we recommend using a slot calculator. The calculator only requires you to put in the game's RTP, volatility, average playing pace, bet size, and total bankroll.

Once the calculation is done, you can see your average win, loss, and potential winning chance percentage. That way, you can set a positive expectation by adjusting your playstyle based on the best calculation.

Positive Expectations for Blackjack

It's often hard to set positive expectations for casino games, as the advantage tends to be on the casino's hands, who can profit through the house edge. However, blackjack allows players to set positive expectations through card counting.

Players and dealers will compete to have the best hands when playing a blackjack game. If the player has good skill, a blackjack game has a low house edge with a negative expectation of below 0.5%.

You can have an advantage if you play as if all cards have an equal chance of being drawn from the decks. However, decks always end up in different sequences after being shuffled, so the probability always changes.

For example, a deck of cards has four aces, which means there's a probability of 4/52 or 1/13 of you drawing an ace. However, when the first ten cards drawn from the deck don't include any ace, the probability of you drawing an ace on the next draw gets bigger, as it's no longer 4/52 but 4/42.

To set a positive expectation, keep track of all cards drawn from the decks. You should then wait until there are fewer high cards drawn. That way, the probability of getting a high card will increase. Card counting done right can give players a 1% positive expectation.

Poker Positive Expectations

Poker is more complex than most games, as there are many winning hand combinations, and the hand's value will also depend on your opponent's. Still, if you're quite adept at poker strategies and have understood positive expectations, you should be able to connect each move to create the best outcome logically.

For example, it's common for poker players to flop 4 to a flush when playing Texas Holdem. In this case, the player should only draw to the flush to create a positive expectation.

The easiest way to create a positive expectation when playing poker is by comparing the bet size with the pot size. Using the previous example, a flopped flush draw is expected in around one in three times by the river. The pot size must be three times larger than the call.

To make things clearer, let's use another example. When you're playing five to 10 limit poker on the button, there are three limpers, and you call with A4 diamonds. There's $30 on the pot with both Blinds call, and then you flop the nut flush draw. There are four callers, and the one in the small Blind bets $5.

There's $55 on the pot, and calling costs $5, leading the pot to give you an 11:1 odds. As you already know that the flush draw's chance is ⅓, you'll know that making a call leads you to a positive expectation.